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Northern Virginia Guide › Housing market: the NoVA Index
Quick answer
No. The median Northern Virginia house or townhouse sold for $785,000 in September 2026, the same as September 2025, and the price per square foot rose 1.8% to $396. Bidding wars cooled: 29% of homes sold over asking, down from 33% a year earlier, and 1,478 homes sold, 10% fewer.
Published October 8, 20261,478 closed sales, Bright MLSNext edition: early November
Compiled byAhmed MakkiyahREALTOR®, Douglas Realty of Virginia · English and ArabicMobile 734.383.6945 · Direct 703.957.0060 Houses and townhouses, condos not included. Each against September 2025.
What moved
No. Prices held and buyers got more room. Three things changed from September 2025 to September 2026.
The overall median stayed at $785,000, while houses rose 3.1% to $914,750 and townhouses 2.3% to $655,000. That can happen because the combined median depends on how many of each type sold: townhouses, which sell for less, were a slightly larger share of sales in September 2026 (540 of 1,478, about 37%) than in September 2025 (576 of 1,642, about 35%). Price per square foot, the steadier measure, was up 1.8%.
29% of homes sold above their list price, down from 33%. This spring the share hit 53% in April, so the market has cooled from spring, as it does most years, and a little more than it did in 2025.
1,478 houses and townhouses closed, against 1,642 in September 2025, 10% fewer. A few late-reported September sales can still be added after the October 6 pull, so this gap may narrow slightly.
The barometer
Balanced. In September 2026, 29% of houses and townhouses sold for more than their list price, inside the band from 20% to under 35% that the Index calls balanced. In April it was 53%.
Share of homes sold over asking, July to September 2026. Under 20%: buyers’ edge. 20% to under 35%: balanced. 35% to under 50%: sellers’ edge. 50% and over: bidding wars.
Houses and townhouses
In September 2026 the median house sold for $914,750 and the median townhouse for $655,000, so a house cost $259,750 more. Against September 2025, houses were up 3.1% and townhouses up 2.3%. Condos are not included.
| Houses | Townhouses | |
|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $914,750$887,450 a year earlier | $655,000$640,000 a year earlier |
| Median price per sq ft | $414$401 a year earlier | $368$372 a year earlier |
| Share sold over asking | 29%31% a year earlier | 29%38% a year earlier |
| Median days to sell | 1417 a year earlier | 1513 a year earlier |
| Homes sold | 9381,066 a year earlier | 540576 a year earlier |
Month by month
Prices follow the seasons: they climb into the spring and ease through the summer. Comparing each month with the same month a year earlier takes the season out.
Median sale price
2026 2025
September: $785,000 in 2026, $785,000 in 2025
Share of homes sold over asking
2026 2025
September: 29.0% in 2026, 33.1% in 2025
| Month | 2025 median price | 2026 median price | Change | Median per sq ft | Share sold over asking | Homes sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | $774,950 | $737,050 | −4.9% | $395 → $381 | 38% → 28% | 956 → 948 |
| February | $800,000 | $789,245 | −1.3% | $400 → $399 | 53% → 44% | 1,121 → 1,178 |
| March | $835,000 | $825,000 | −1.2% | $411 → $410 | 55% → 49% | 1,461 → 1,576 |
| April | $830,000 | $850,000 | +2.4% | $402 → $413 | 55% → 53% | 2,035 → 2,086 |
| May | $824,900 | $850,000 | +3.0% | $404 → $414 | 52% → 52% | 2,219 → 2,421 |
| June | $830,000 | $840,000 | +1.2% | $400 → $409 | 44% → 47% | 2,216 → 2,470 |
| July | $815,000 | $820,000 | +0.6% | $394 → $396 | 36% → 41% | 2,001 → 2,033 |
| August | $807,500 | $800,000 | −0.9% | $393 → $396 | 34% → 33% | 1,825 → 1,775 |
| September | $785,000 | $785,000 | 0.0% | $389 → $396 | 33% → 29% | 1,642 → 1,478 |
County by county
July to September 2026, against the same three months of 2025. Counties use three months of sales so a handful of big or small sales cannot swing the number. The line shows each month of 2026 over the faint line for 2025.
5,286 homes sold, July to September 2026
Median price unchanged on a year. 34.8% sold over asking: balanced on the barometer.
2026 by month 2025
2,388 homes sold, July to September 2026
Median price up 0.9% on a year. 37% sold over asking: sellers' edge on the barometer.
2026 by month 2025
1,052 homes sold, July to September 2026
Median price up 0.2% on a year. 31% sold over asking: balanced on the barometer.
2026 by month 2025
1,170 homes sold, July to September 2026
Median price down 0.9% on a year. 34% sold over asking: balanced on the barometer.
2026 by month 2025
289 homes sold, July to September 2026
Median price down 0.4% on a year. 36% sold over asking: sellers' edge on the barometer.
2026 by month 2025
193 homes sold, July to September 2026
Median price up 1.8% on a year. 33% sold over asking: balanced on the barometer.
2026 by month 2025
All of Northern Virginia also includes the cities of Fairfax, Falls Church, Manassas and Manassas Park. Arlington and Alexandria townhouse figures rest on fewer sales and move more from quarter to quarter.
Town by town
Every town has its own page with its own sale prices and a free home value check.
How the Index works
A number is only useful if it is built the same way each time. These rules do not change from edition to edition; if one ever has to, the change will be dated here.
Every edition
Each month's edition is kept at its own address, so you can see how any month was reported at the time.
Questions
No. In September 2026 the median house or townhouse sold for $785,000, the same as in September 2025, and the price per square foot rose 1.8% to $396. What has eased is competition: 29% of homes sold over asking, against 33% a year earlier, and 1,478 homes sold, 10% fewer. Source: Bright MLS closed sales, September 1 to 30 of each year, condos not included.
No. In September 2026 the median house or townhouse sold for $785,000, the same as in September 2025, and the price per square foot was up 1.8% to $396. Houses were up 3.1% to $914,750 and townhouses up 2.3% to $655,000. What has eased is competition: 29% of homes sold over asking, against 33% a year earlier. Source: Bright MLS closed sales, September 1 to 30 of each year, condos not included.
Balanced, by the NoVA Index barometer. In September 2026, 29% of houses and townhouses sold for more than their list price, inside the band from 20% to under 35% that the Index calls balanced. In April 2026 it was 53%, a bidding-war spring. The median home still sold in 14 days, so well-priced homes sell quickly.
$785,000 for houses and townhouses that closed from September 1 to 30, 2026 (1,478 sales, condos not included). Houses alone: $914,750. Townhouses alone: $655,000. Arlington and Alexandria cost the most per square foot; Prince William the least.
The median house or townhouse that closed in September 2026 sold in 14 days on the market, against 15 days in September 2025. In spring 2026 the monthly median was 5 to 6 days: 6 in March and May, 5 in April.
A monthly report on Northern Virginia home prices by Ahmed Makkiyah, REALTOR® with Douglas Realty of Virginia. It uses every closed sale of a detached house or fee-simple townhouse in Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William and Arlington counties and the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Manassas and Manassas Park, from Bright MLS. Each month is compared with the same month a year earlier. The method stays the same from month to month, and every edition is kept.
Each edition comes out in the first days of the following month, once the month's sales have closed. The October 2026 edition is due in early November 2026.
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