Rent or buy in Northern Virginia?A calculator with 2026 rates, taxes and closing costs
Type your rent and the price. See which comes out ahead after the years you plan to stay.
Rent it or own it?· Burke, Fairfax County
Numbers: Ahmed’s Bright MLS leases and sales, Virginia Code, today’s rate. Pictures: artist’s renderings of real places.
The calculator
Rent or buy: which comes out ahead for you?
The assumptions
Type your rent and the price, pick your down payment and how long you will stay. Change the rate and growth under the assumptions.
Updated October 25, 2026Rate updates daily; rents and prices 2026A 20-second calculator, plus a 4-minute read
Quick answer
In Northern Virginia in 2026, it depends mostly on how long you stay. Take a $650,000 townhouse with 20% down at today’s 7.33% rate against the $3,200 a month a 3-bedroom townhouse rents for in Fairfax County: owning costs about $4,837 a month at first, and buying pulls ahead in year 9, if prices rise 3% a year.1,2,3 If prices rise 5% a year, buying pulls ahead in year 1; if they stay flat, renting stays ahead. These leave out brokerage costs when you sell; add yours, with your own rent and price, below.
Renting vs. buying, in six numbers
One example: a $650,000 townhouse in Fairfax County
An example, not a forecast. Your rent, price, rate and plans change the answer: use the calculator.
One example, six ways
A $650,000 townhouse against $3,200 rent.
What changes the answer, sold after 3, 5 or 7 years.
| If | 3 years | 5 years | 7 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prices +3% a year (the example)Buying ahead from year 9 | −$13,500 | −$11,200 | −$5,400 |
| Prices flatRenting ahead all 10 years | −$72,400 | −$110,100 | −$145,000 |
| Prices +5% a yearBuying ahead from year 1 | +$27,700 | +$61,700 | +$102,700 |
| 5% down instead of 20%Renting ahead all 10 years | −$29,800 | −$39,000 | −$45,600 |
| Rent $2,600 insteadRenting ahead all 10 years | −$37,100 | −$53,300 | −$68,600 |
| Rent $3,800 insteadBuying ahead from year 2 | +$10,000 | +$30,900 | +$57,900 |
Three things move the answer most. Years you stay: buying has a cost to get in (closing costs) and a cost to get out (selling costs), and each year you stay spreads them thinner while your loan shrinks. Price growth: at 0% a year renting wins; at 5%, buying pulls ahead in year 1.2
Rent against price: the higher your rent for the same home, the sooner buying wins. The rate matters too: every point off the rate cuts the monthly cost of owning, which is why many buyers here plan to refinance if rates fall.
Timing
How long you stay is the decision you control.
Prices and rates move on their own. Your plans do not.
Timing is a decision, not a coincidence. The calculator cannot tell you what prices will do, but it tells you the one thing you control: if you are likely to move within two or three years, renting usually costs less; if you will stay seven years or more, owning usually wins, even at 2026 rates.
Right timing, the right price and the right condition make the purchase smooth. If buying is close in your numbers, the home you choose, its HOA, its taxes and the price you negotiate can tip it either way.
Questions
What renters ask before they buy.
Is it better to rent or buy in Northern Virginia?
It depends on how long you stay. With 20% down at 7.33%, a $650,000 townhouse that rents for $3,200 a month comes out ahead of renting in year 9 if prices rise 3% a year. If you may move sooner, renting usually costs less.
How long do you need to stay to make buying worth it?
In the example on this page, year 9 at 3% price growth, year 1 at 5%. The calculator works it out for your own rent and price.
Is rent cheaper than a mortgage in Northern Virginia?
Month to month, usually yes in 2026: owning a $650,000 townhouse with 20% down costs about $4,837 a month at first, against $3,200 rent. But about $399 of that monthly cost pays down your loan, which you keep.
What does the calculator count?
The down payment, Virginia closing taxes, title and settlement, the loan, property tax, insurance, PMI under 20% down, HOA, upkeep at 1% a year, the Virginia seller costs when you sell, and the renter's savings growing. It leaves out lender fees, moving costs and tax deductions.
Why does the renter come out ahead in the first years?
Buying costs about $8,578 up front in Virginia taxes, title and settlement on a $650,000 home, and selling has its own costs. It takes some years of loan payoff and price growth to earn those back.
Does this calculator save what I type?
No. It runs in your browser, and nothing is stored or sent unless you choose to text or email Ahmed.
Your next step
Renting or buying is close? Let’s look at it together.
Tell me your rent, your budget and how long you plan to stay. I will run it with the real taxes, HOA and rate for the homes you like, and tell you straight if renting is the better call. English or Arabic.
اقرأ هذه الصفحة كاملة بالعربية ←
وكيلك العقاري الموثوق في شمال فرجينيا.
Keep exploring
Your next pages.
First-time buyer programs
Grants and down payment help, with 2026 limits.
ToolBuying power calculator
Start from the payment you want; tax, insurance and HOA included.
ToolClosing cost calculator
What a buyer pays at closing, line by line.
Ask AhmedBuy now or wait for rates?
What waiting costs, in dollars.
Keep reading
- ToolFirst-time buyer programsWhich state and county programs fit you: Virginia Housing grants and Fairfax, Loudoun, Arlington and Prince William help, 2026 limits.
- ToolBuying power calculatorStart from the payment. Tax, insurance and HOA included.
- ToolClosing cost calculatorWhat a seller and a buyer pay at closing in Virginia: grantor tax, recordation tax, title and settlement.
- Ask AhmedBuy now or wait for rates?Ahmed's answer, a wait-or-buy calculator and what NoVA prices did when rates jumped.