How my numbers are madeWhere every Northern Virginia home figure on this site comes from, and how it’s checked
Every number here says what it is, what it counts, its dates and its source. Pick one below and check it yourself.
Every sale, with its date· Fairfax County
Numbers: Bright MLS closed sales pulled by Ahmed, county records, FHFA and official public sources. Pictures: concept images and artist’s renderings.
Check any number
Pick a number. See its passport.
Where it comes from, what it counts, its dates and how many sales stand behind it.
Updated October 27, 2026Figures as of each page’s own datesA 3-minute read
Quick answer
Every market number on this site comes from Bright MLS closed sales that Ahmed pulls himself, or from an official public source. Each one says what it is, what it counts, its exact dates and where it comes from. The town prices rest on 16,116 closed sales from January 1 to October 2, 2026;1 the home value estimate on 40,274, and it was graded before launch: a 5.1% typical miss on 7,641 recent sales.6 Pick a number below to see its passport.
The site’s numbers, in four figures
Each one from Ahmed’s own Bright MLS pulls
Houses and townhouses only, condos left out. Each figure’s dates are in its source note.
From records to one number
How 42,298 sales became one monthly report.
This is the NoVA Index, step by step. Every market number on the site goes through the same kind of filter.
42,298 closed sales in the Bright MLS pullJanuary to September 2025, and January 1 to October 2, 2026
−2 sales under $75,000 taken outAlmost never a normal market sale
−10,615 condos and apartments taken outA different market, with monthly fees that change the price
−240 October 2026 sales taken outThe month wasn’t over, and a half month makes the trend jump
31,441 houses and townhouses keptEach one counts in its month’s median
Every month, against the same month a year earlier
20252026Closed sales of houses and townhouses, all of Northern Virginia. Tap a month.2
Where the 31,441 sales are
Closed sales of houses and townhouses, January to September 2025 and 2026, by county and city.
Fairfax County14,246
Prince William County6,707
Loudoun County6,277
Arlington County1,671
City of Alexandria1,356
City of Manassas498
City of Fairfax348
City of Manassas Park183
City of Falls Church155
The accuracy test
The home value estimate was graded before you saw it.
It priced 11,099 homes that sold from May to October 24, 2026, each one using only sales that closed before it, then compared its answer with the real price.
Of the 7,641 sales priced from their own community. Then Ahmed does what a model can’t: he walks the house and checks each comparable sale by hand.6
Out of every 100 homes it priced
- 49sold within 5% of the estimate
- 28sold 5% to 10% away
- 23sold more than 10% away
Every estimate comes with confidence stars. Slide to see what each one meant.
The rules
Six rules every number follows.
Written down on October 10, 2026, and read on every page before it goes live.
Every number answers four questions
What kind of number is it (median, average, count)? What does it count? Where and when? From where?
Medians, not averages
The median is the middle sale: half sold for more, half for less. One record sale can’t drag it.
Dates in words, to the day
“January 1 to October 2, 2026”, never “2026 so far”. Tap any ★ on a sold figure to see its dates.
Ranges name both ends
A range says what it’s made of: “$820K in the City of Fairfax to $2.3M in McLean”, never a bare “$820K to $2.3M”.
Small samples are flagged
Fewer than 10 sales is too few to call a median. 10 to 29 sales is marked as a small sample.
Places, never people
The site describes homes, prices, streets and schools. It never describes who lives where (Fair Housing).
Why the median: McLean houses, closed January 1 to October 2, 2026 (335 sales).1 A few very large sales pull the average up by $347,943. The median stays with the typical house.
Every number has dates
The dates behind each study.
Each bar is the window of sales a study counts. Tap a name to open it.
Prices since 20202019 to September 30, 2026
Best time to sellListed 2023 to 2025
Best month to rentOctober 22, 2024 to October 22, 2026
Home value estimateOctober 24, 2024 to October 24, 2026
The NoVA IndexJanuary to September, 2025 and 2026
Town home pricesJanuary 1 to October 2, 2026
What’s left out
What the figures leave out, and why.
Leaving the wrong sales in is the fastest way to a wrong median.
- Condos and co-ops. They are a different market, with fees that change the price. When a page shows condos, the label says so.
- Sales under $75,000. They are almost never normal market sales.
- A month that isn’t over. A half month would make the trend jump.
- Sales never listed in Bright MLS. Most Northern Virginia homes sell through the MLS, but a private sale between neighbors isn’t in it.
- Other sites’ estimates. They are never mixed into these figures. Where a page quotes an outside report (a monthly county report, for example), it is labeled with that source.
What stays private
What I never publish.
The site shows how good the numbers are, not the private records behind them.
- The MLS records themselves. Bright MLS data is licensed to REALTORS®, so the site shows summaries, never the listings.
- Addresses and names. No figure on the site points to a seller or a buyer.
- How the estimate picks and weighs comparable sales. That method is Ahmed’s own work.
You don’t have to take it on trust. Try the estimate on a home whose price you know and see how close it comes.
Corrections and quoting
Found a mistake? Quoting a number?
Both are welcome.
See a number that looks wrong? Tell me below. I check it against the source, fix it, and note the date on the page. Every page is checked once a month.
Vienna, VA: median house price $1,453,000, from 428 Bright MLS closed sales, January 1 to October 2, 2026. Source: AM Nova Homes (amnovahomes.com).
Questions
What people ask about the numbers.
Where do AM Nova Homes' home prices come from?
From Bright MLS closed sales that Ahmed Makkiyah, a REALTOR with Douglas Realty of Virginia, pulls himself. The 2026 town prices use 16,116 closed sales of houses (3 or more bedrooms, 2 or more full baths) and fee-simple townhouses from January 1 to October 2, 2026. Condos are left out. Every sold figure on the site gives its exact dates.
How accurate is the AM Nova Homes home value estimate?
Before launch it priced 7,641 homes that sold from May to October 24, 2026, using only sales that closed before each one. Priced from its own community, the typical miss was 5.1%: 77% sold within 10% of the estimate and 83% inside the range it showed. Each estimate also gets 1 to 5 confidence stars.
How is this different from Zillow's Zestimate?
Zillow's Zestimate is one national model, and Zillow publishes a 7.2% median error for off-market homes nationwide. This site's estimate is built only from Northern Virginia sales and graded on them (5.1% typical miss). The homes and the tests are different, so it is not a head-to-head comparison. Ahmed then checks each written valuation by hand.
Why does the site use the median price, not the average?
The median is the middle sale, so a few very expensive sales can't drag it. In McLean, January 1 to October 2, 2026, the median house sold for $2,300,000 and the average was $2,647,943, because the highest sale was $13,500,000.
Why are condos left out?
Condos are a different market, with monthly fees that change what buyers pay. Mixing them in would pull a town's median down and hide what houses and townhouses cost. When a page shows condo figures, the label says condos.
How often are the numbers updated?
The market figures are re-pulled from Bright MLS, and each one carries its own pull date. Every page is checked once a month, and a list of every dated line on the site (tax rates, road openings, new reports) says when each must be checked again.
Your next step
Question about a number? Ask me.
Tell me which number and which page. I’ll show you the sales behind it, or fix it if it’s wrong. In English or Arabic.
اقرأ هذه الصفحة كاملة بالعربية ←
وكيلك العقاري الموثوق في شمال فرجينيا.
Keep exploring
See the numbers.
Keep reading
- Monthly reportHousing market reportThe NoVA Index: what homes sold for, month by month.
- ToolWhat is my home worth?A written valuation from the closed sales nearest you.
- Market studyPrices since 2020What cheap money did to prices, county by county.
- About AhmedAbout AhmedWho pulls the numbers, and how he works.